There's a predictable pattern to how projects deteriorate. The early warning signs are often visible weeks or months before the situation becomes a visible crisis — but they're easy to rationalise away when you're invested in the program's success.
1. Status reports that consistently lack specifics
When status reports describe what the team has been doing rather than what has been completed, what is at risk, and what decisions are needed, it's usually because the person writing them doesn't want to answer those questions in writing. Vague status is not neutral. It's a sign that clarity would require uncomfortable disclosures.
2. The same issues appearing on consecutive risk registers
A risk that appears on three consecutive weekly reports with "being managed" notation is not being managed. It's being carried forward. Risks that persist without resolution or escalation indicate the escalation mechanism either doesn't work or isn't being used.
3. Vendor or contractor relationships becoming adversarial
When communication shifts from collaborative to transactional — more emails, more CYA documentation, more formal correspondence — it usually indicates an underlying dispute that hasn't been formally addressed. Adversarial vendor relationships rarely self-correct. They escalate.
4. Stakeholders withdrawing from the program
When a previously engaged stakeholder starts missing steering committee meetings or stops asking questions, they've usually decided the program isn't going to succeed and are managing their own exposure. Stakeholder disengagement is a governance problem, not a scheduling inconvenience.
5. The critical path has never been updated
A project plan built at initiation and never formally updated is not a plan. It's a historical document. When the delivery team works from an outdated baseline, there is no reliable way to measure progress or identify where the program is actually at risk.
6. Leadership is asking questions the PM can't answer
If an executive asks "what's the actual status of X" and the answer requires checking with three people, the program lacks the governance infrastructure to provide reliable information on demand. When this breaks down, the relationship is already in trouble.
7. The team is fully utilised but progress feels slow
When a capable, fully utilised team produces less progress than the effort suggests, there's usually a structural problem: unclear priorities, dependency blockages, or effort directed at the wrong things. Effort and progress are not the same metric. When they diverge, a structural intervention is needed.
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